MisEntropy

A Whitepaper outlining an Ad Pre-Testing model based on Prediction Markets

 

A long while ago, Leland Maschmeyer (posting at his erstwhile blog 'Whistle Through Your Comb') had put forth the idea of prediction markets substituting for advertising pre-testing. As a self-confessed believer of prediction markets-for-everything, I initially found the idea interesting but implausible. Leland and I exchanged mails and comments - and put the idea aside.

But the possibility intrigued me - and I kept returning to it, trying to find ways to make the contraption work. The result is the following whitepaper which outlines a new totally new model for ad pre-testing using prediction markets.

Here's an abstract of the paper :

"The fundamental principles behind current advertising pre-testing models have hardly changed in the past few decades. This paper argues that it’s time to update the discipline with contemporary paradigms of collaborative thinking and decision-making. Using the thinking behind prediction markets, the paper constructs a completely revamped model for ad pre-testing – offering another avenue for advertisers seeking precious market information, while also clarifying the role played by traditional ad pre-testing."

You can download the paper here:

"Predictive Pre-testing : An outline for an ad pre-testing model based on prediction markets."

I would love to hear comments and views.

[The word cloud at the beginning of the post is Wordle summary of the entire paper.]

PS : A webliography of the references in the paper:
∞ Goodbye Innovation by Frederik Sarnblad
∞ Workers, Place Your Bets Businessweek, August 3rd 2006
∞ Hollywood Games People Play Businessweek, August 7th 2006
∞ Predictive Markets Better Than Ad Testing? by Leland Maschmeyer
∞ Is the Link pre-test the equivalent of the Smith & Wesson Magnum 500? by Nigel Hollis
∞ Great Quotes for Planners #22 - Huxley on pre-testing by Jason Lonsdale
∞ Great Quotes for Planners #41 -Akio Morita on pre-testing by Jason Lonsdale
∞ Arnold creatives show us just what they think of focus groups by Ed Cotton
∞ Pre-testing by Jason Oke
∞ In defense of pre-testing by Nigel Hollis
∞ Pre-testing, part II by Jason Oke
∞ WIRED 15.07: 'The Human Advantage’ by Clive Thompson

You must download the change you want to see in the world

The Elongtaing Tail of Brand Communication: An approach to brand building incorporating long tail economics - my Atticus-winning whitepaper - is now available as a ChangeThis Manifesto.

[Original pic by r1chardm]

Social media - just another place to advertise or a new business opportunity?

Wrote another piece that appeared in agencyfaqs! today.

You can read it by following this link : Social media - just another place to advertise or a new business opportunity?

Wrote another piece that appeared in agencyfaqs! today.

You can read it by following this link : Social media - just another place to advertise or a new business opportunity?

Where's the long tail of brand communication? [UPDATED]

I have been hard at work the past few months hammering away at extending Chris Anderson's Long Tail theory to the field of brand communication and brand-building. After repeated reading and re-reading of Chris' book and writing and re-writing of my own thoughts, I have finally got myself to hit the 'make pdf' button and have digitally shrink-wrapped copies of the resulting paper for distribution.

In it's 22 pages you'll find the answers all of these questions : What do you get when you apply the first principles of long tail economics to the craft of brand building? Can you create a complex, layered brand image by resorting to simple advertising? What role is user generated content going to play in the future of mainstream advertising? What lessons can space exploration and robotics teach the practitioners of brand-building? What's the evolving science of negative databases and why do we brand custodians need to learn about it? Why is the single-minded brand proposition an anachronism in the contemporary world of marketing?

You can download the paper here : The Elongating Tail of Brand Communication: An approach to brand-building incorporating long tail economics

I would love to hear comments and views.

UPDATE: Chris Anderson has just posted and commented on the paper on his Long Tail blog :)

UPDATE 2: Atticus Award for the 'The Elongating Tail...' paper

UPDATE 3 (20th Aug 2007): A proposal to convert the above paper into a ChangeThis Manifesto is currently up for vote. Please do vote for it by following this link. Voting ends 16th Sept. 2007.

Is your brand oversteering or understeering?

Wrote a piece that appeared in agencyfaqs! today.

You can read it by following this link : Is your brand oversteering or understeering?

Skatin' On Thin Ice - May 2006

Do the controversies of the last year put an end to Wikipedia's rapid rise into prominence? Has the open source model of knowledge gathering and dissemniation been dealt a killer blow? Or is it just a passing storm and is Wikipedia going to emerge stronger? Find out in this column, the second of a continuing series that focuses on the world of the future.

Download Thin_Ice_May_06.pdf

[Before being relocated here, this post and the adjoining piece were originally posted on a now discontinued blog dedicated to my writings.]

Skatin' On Thin Ice - April 2006

Camera technology has improved in leaps and bounds over the last 100 years. But to some it still hasn't progressed enough. The holy grail of photography - great photographs at the mere click of a button - still remains as elusive as ever. But probably not for much longer. A few recent developments on the web point to a rather interesting future for photography. Find out more in this column - the first of a  series that aims to unravel the future before it becomes a reality.

Download Thin_Ice_April_06.pdf

[Before being relocated here, this post and the adjoining piece were originally posted on a now discontinued blog dedicated to my writings.]

The Intranets of Babel

Can we ever have too much information? This white paper explores the possibility that we might have already reached that stage already and the outcome might not be the utopia we have imagined. It recommends some surprisingly old ways to deal with the information glut - especially within corporate intranets.

Download The_Intranets_Of_Babel.pdf

[Before being relocated here, this post and the whitepaper were originally posted on a now discontinued blog dedicated to my writings.]